composing intelligent understanding modeling contingent insights exploring predictive wisdom forecasting probable forecasts mapping calibrated insights mapping the future mapping contingent contingencies crowdsourcing predictive estimations modeling contingent wisdom crowdsourcing intelligent predictions assembling probable understanding predicting probable contingencies computing precise estimations predicting probable wisdom


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?

Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.

In the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been reduced from 70,000,000 to 246. But when will we know whether N=2 or not?

When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?

The question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges.

An earlier question on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site