crowdsourcing precise estimations forecasting probable futures predicting definitive estimations computing accurate contingencies modeling contingent understanding mapping the future delivering precise insights computing probable predictions aggregating precise insights mapping predictive contingencies assembling quantitative contingencies assembling intelligent estimations assembling calibrated estimations composing predictive understanding

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?

Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [1]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.

The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years.

What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?

The resolution will be based on the globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.

(See also: Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?, which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.