41 comments
68 forecasters
Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?
70%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 70% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 17, 2019
Closes:Mar 15, 2019
Resolved:Feb 1, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 18, 2019
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What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
91 forecasters
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
3.7×10²⁹ FLOP
(1.4×10²⁸ - 9.3×10³¹)
3.7×10²⁹ FLOP
(1.4×10²⁸ - 9.3×10³¹)
7 forecasters
What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?
64.8M H100 Equivalents
(33.5M - 108M)
64.8M H100 Equivalents
(33.5M - 108M)
3 forecasters