• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
14 comments
16 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024?

Alaskaresult: 13.1
Iowaresult: 13.2
Ohioresult: 11.1
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:Jul 16, 2024
Closes:Nov 5, 2024
Resolved:Dec 1, 2024
Elections
Politics
🏆 2024 Leaderboard
Raw Story logo
Trump sinks underwater in every swing state in new polling
Raw Story•Oct 15, 2025
FOX News logo
Trump’s redistricting push gains steam in another key state: 'We will stand with the president'
FOX News•Oct 15, 2025
Slate logo
He Fought Trump’s Texas Power Grab. Now He’s Defending Himself in Court.
Slate•Oct 15, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election?

2024
No
2028
1%
2032
5%
6 others
25 forecasters

If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?

Texas
49%
California
35%
Florida
20%
47 others
44 forecasters

What will Donald Trump's net approval be on November 2, 2026?

-10.9
(-14.2 - -7.52)
-10.9
(-14.2 - -7.52)
144 forecasters
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature