Group

What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024?

14 comments14

16 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 10

Alaska

Iowa

Ohio

Texas

Florida

Arizona

Make a Prediction

Resolved

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CDF

	<-25	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>5
community	4.2%	-19.56	-16.72	-13.39	0.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<-25	4.2%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	-19.56	—
median	-16.72	—
upper 75%	-13.39	—
Upper bound
>5	0.3%	—

What was the final result?-18.2

Community Baseline Score

35.1

Community Peer Score

7.7

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Jul 16, 2024

Closes:

Nov 5, 2024

Resolves:

Nov 8, 2024

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