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Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline
Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:
The decline in crime rates in the US since the 1990s has been incredibly pronounced. Between 1993 and 2017, violent crime fell by 49 percent, according to data from the FBI. (If you instead poll Americans on whether they were victims of a crime, which sometimes gets different results than looking at arrest rates, violent crime looks to have fallen by 73 percent.) Violent crime rates declined almost every individual year, except 2004-2006 and 2014-2016. We don’t know all of the causes of the fall in crime (lead poisoning likely has something to do with it), but I expect the trend to continue. —KP
Future Perfect's prediction: 80%
The question resolves positive if the FBI's annual Crime in the United States report indicates that the number of homicides declined in 2019 relative to 2018
Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:
Related Non-Series Questions:
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.