Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline

Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.

From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:

The decline in crime rates in the US since the 1990s has been incredibly pronounced. Between 1993 and 2017, violent crime fell by 49 percent, according to data from the FBI. (If you instead poll Americans on whether they were victims of a crime, which sometimes gets different results than looking at arrest rates, violent crime looks to have fallen by 73 percent.) Violent crime rates declined almost every individual year, except 2004-2006 and 2014-2016. We don’t know all of the causes of the fall in crime (lead poisoning likely has something to do with it), but I expect the trend to continue. —KP

Future Perfect's prediction: 80%

The question resolves positive if the FBI's annual Crime in the United States report indicates that the number of homicides declined in 2019 relative to 2018

Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:

Q1. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union

Q3. Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

Q4. More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018

Q5. No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019

Q6. Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain

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