11 comments
140 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?
2%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jul 22, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 23, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?
4% chance
75
If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?
May 2049
(Oct 2034 - 2097)
May 2049
(Oct 2034 - 2097)
70 forecasters
Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?
5.27 score
(4.58 - 6.65)
5.27 score
(4.58 - 6.65)
49 forecasters