Question
Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?
Total Forecasters14
Community Prediction
70.5 deaths per 100k
(44.5 deaths per 100k - 97 deaths per 100k)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 44.51 | — |
| median | 70.47 | — |
| upper 75% | 96.95 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >250 | 1.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 22, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 23, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Jul 22, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 23, 2024