Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:
In 2016, more than 9 billion animals were killed for food in the US. Meat consumption per capita has stayed steady or arguably fallen, but as the population is increasing, overall meat consumption has been rising. Plant-based foods might change this someday, but for now the biggest factor that drives meat consumption is actually the economy — people buy more meat when they’re doing better financially. I expect that if we see a strong economy for another year, more animals will be killed for food —KP.
Future Perfect's prediction: 60%**
The question resolves positive if the numbers as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations indicate that more animals were killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018
Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:
Related Non-Series Questions: