Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018

Question

Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.

From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:

In 2016, more than 9 billion animals were killed for food in the US. Meat consumption per capita has stayed steady or arguably fallen, but as the population is increasing, overall meat consumption has been rising. Plant-based foods might change this someday, but for now the biggest factor that drives meat consumption is actually the economy — people buy more meat when they’re doing better financially. I expect that if we see a strong economy for another year, more animals will be killed for food —KP. 

Future Perfect's prediction: 60%**

The question resolves positive if the numbers as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations indicate that more animals were killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018


Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:

Q1. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union

Q2. US homicides will decline

Q3. Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

Q5. No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019

Q6. Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain


Related Non-Series Questions:

Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?

A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?

A decrease in US meat production by 2025?

Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020?

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.