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Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019


Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.

From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:

My standard here is PredictWise, a website that collates odds from bookies and prediction markets to estimate the likelihood that bettors — people putting down actual money predicting the 2020 primaries — assign to various candidates. This prediction will hold up if no Democrat’s odds of winning the nomination break 50 percent at any point during 2019.

Someone in the crowded Democratic field might truly break out and start trouncing everybody. In 2003, Howard Dean’s star rose so much that the Iowa Electronic Markets started giving him a greater than 50 percent chance of winning the nomination. But that seems unusual. Bob Dole didn’t crack 50 percent until pretty late in the 1996 cycle, which he dominated to a far greater degree than I expect anyone to in 2020. No Republican in 2007 came close —DM.

Future Perfect's prediction: 60%**

The question resolves positive if no Democratic candidate reaches 50% probability of receiving the nomination according to PredictWise.

Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:

Q1. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union

Q2. US homicides will decline

Q3. Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

Q4. More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018

Q6. Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain

Related Non-Series Questions:

Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?

Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?

Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?

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