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Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019
Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:
My standard here is PredictWise, a website that collates odds from bookies and prediction markets to estimate the likelihood that bettors — people putting down actual money predicting the 2020 primaries — assign to various candidates. This prediction will hold up if no Democrat’s odds of winning the nomination break 50 percent at any point during 2019.
Someone in the crowded Democratic field might truly break out and start trouncing everybody. In 2003, Howard Dean’s star rose so much that the Iowa Electronic Markets started giving him a greater than 50 percent chance of winning the nomination. But that seems unusual. Bob Dole didn’t crack 50 percent until pretty late in the 1996 cycle, which he dominated to a far greater degree than I expect anyone to in 2020. No Republican in 2007 came close —DM.
Future Perfect's prediction: 60%
The question resolves positive if no Democratic candidate reaches 50% probability of receiving the nomination according to PredictWise.
Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:
Related Non-Series Questions:
Metaculus help: Predicting
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
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