34 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

30%chance

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 23, 2024

Five Years After AGI

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial Intelligence

A House of Dynamite imagines what would happen if the US were under nuclear attack. Here’s what it gets wrong

Independent•Oct 27, 2025

Here's what experts say 'A House of Dynamite' gets wrong (and right) about nuclear war

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