Development of the first artificial general intelligence may share several parallels with the development of the first nuclear weapon. The basic concept of nuclear weapons existed in the popular sphere many years before the first successful test, which itself preceded public announcement of the weapon after the atomic bombing of Hiroshima by some three weeks. AGI's speculated disruptive potential is very high, and heads of state have publicly stated that the realization of AGI has not only critical national security implications but implications affecting the future of humanity.
For these reasons, and because the capability to make nuclear weapons was not immediately announced to the public, it is plausible that a gap between attainment of capability and announcement of capability could exist after creation of the first AGI--whether or not its creation takes place in an adversarial context.
50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
The rev slider quantity is hours. Keep in mind that the precision of the future given dates of creation and public awareness are unspecified and unknown. For the purpose of resolution, the lowest credible value, rounded as precision demands, shall be used, as determined by mods. A 0-hour public discovery is represented by the minimum prediction value, as log scale can't be used if 0 is included. The upper boundary is open for predictions exceeding 10000 hours.
This question resolves positive if all three of the following conditions are satisfied:
1) an AGI is created
2) this AGI becomes public knowledge by any means
3) 50 years after 2) there exists historical consensus on the dates of 1) and 2).
Mod discretion reserved for what is or isn't an AGI, since it's not completely clear what future definition will be accepted. This question assumes that if AGI happens there will be a widespread consensus recognizing it as such.
Resolves ambiguous if no consensus on AGI's status as such. Resolves ambiguous if no consensus on AGI's creation time, and / or if there is no consensus on when the public becomes aware of AGI.