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AGI Horizons

Make a Prediction


Development of the first artificial general intelligence may share several parallels with the development of the first nuclear weapon. The basic concept of nuclear weapons existed in the popular sphere many years before the first successful test, which itself preceded public announcement of the weapon after the atomic bombing of Hiroshima by some three weeks. AGI's speculated disruptive potential is very high, and heads of state have publicly stated that the realization of AGI has not only critical national security implications but implications affecting the future of humanity.

For these reasons, and because the capability to make nuclear weapons was not immediately announced to the public, it is plausible that a gap between attainment of capability and announcement of capability could exist after creation of the first AGI--whether or not its creation takes place in an adversarial context.