generating calibrated contingencies composing accurate insights aggregating definitive forecasts calculating quantitative contingencies aggregating probable forecasts mapping the future mapping precise wisdom predicting accurate wisdom predicting accurate wisdom forecasting accurate contingencies mapping definitive estimations aggregating precise wisdom aggregating predictive understanding generating intelligent wisdom


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the California Drought end in 2017?

The 2015-2016 rainfall season brought some relief to California, following several years of well-below-average rain and snowfall. The northern half of the state received more-or-less average rain and snowfall, but the much-vaunted El Niño Southern Oscillation did not live up to expectations for the southern half of the state.

The El Niño conditions ended in May, and a band of cool ocean water is now developing in the central and east-central Pacific. This phenomenon is associated with the La Niña flipside of the Southern Oscillation. Empirically, La Niña tends to be associated with dry winters for California, but the connection is by no means one to one. It therefore falls on Metaculus to determine whether the drought will be busted in 2016-2017.

The severity of regional drought conditions is tracked and updated weekly by the National Drought Monitor. As of June 11, 2016, 42.8% of California's area is classified as experiencing "extreme" (code D3) or "exceptional" (code D4) drought. The last date at which California was free of such conditions was August 6th, 2013.

On May 01, 2017, will the National Drought Monitor show that California is entirely free of areas experiencing extreme (D3) or exceptional (D4) drought?


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.