Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
How many MPs will the "Independent Group" have after the next UK general election?
On 2018-02-18, seven Members of Parliament left the Labour Party to form what they call the "Independent Group". Since then, one more Labour MP and three Conservative MPs have joined them. They have cited a variety of reasons for leaving their former parties, but all seem to be broadly centrist and pro-European in comparison with those parties' official positions. All of them support a second referendum on the UK's departure from the EU.
The last party split of this sort in the UK was the one that formed the Social Democratic Party. The SDP entered into an alliance with the Liberal Party, and gained considerable popularity but never very many seats. The two parties eventually merged to form the Liberal Democrats.
Is the "Independent Group" merely a splinter group, destined to fade into obscurity? Or is the time right for the sort of realignment in which it could thrive? We ask:
At the next UK general election, how many MPs will be elected who belong to the Independent Group, or some group or party having continuity with it?
"Having continuity with it" is defined as follows. As of 2019-02-20, let S consist of the 11 MPs described above. On each subsequent day, if there is an explicitly organized political party or group to which belong at least 2/3, and at least 4, of the MPs who were in S on the previous day, and which is not one of the other political parties existing on 2019-02-20, then that party or group is the new S. Otherwise there is no S then or on any subsequent date. We are asking how many MPs will be in S after the next UK general election. (If S no longer exists, that number is zero.)
The next UK general election is currently scheduled for 2022-05-05. There are any number of imaginable scenarios in which a general election might be called sooner, perhaps much sooner. If Parliament so decides, it could also be later. Resolution is as soon as the results of the next election are known with sufficient detail to determine how many MPs, if any, are in S. If there has been no UK general election scheduled by 2022-06-01, or if none has actually occurred by 2022-07-01, then the question resolves at that point, on the basis of the makeup of the UK parliament then. If the UK ceases to be a parliamentary democracy before resolution, resolution is ambiguous.
(The nominal resolve date is set for a few days after the currently scheduled date for the next UK election.)
In cases where the description above leads to unclear or obviously absurd results, the resolution of this question is at the discretion of Metaculus staff.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.