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10
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81
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?
22%
chance
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Top Key Factors
View all (6)
redistribution of wealth
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
well being of people
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
Redistribution of wealth movements
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
Political inertia and legislative lag
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
Framing UBI as human flourishing, not survival
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
Deployment of AGI-powered public administration
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
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Authors:
will_aldred
Opened:
Jul 22, 2024
Closes:
Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:
Jul 23, 2024
Five Years After AGI
Economy & Business
Artificial Intelligence
News Match
Elon’s & Joe’s Not-So-Excellent Adventure: The Delusion of an AI-Driven Nirvana
American Thinker
•
Nov 12, 2025
Elon Musk Predicts Reshaping of US Economy
Newsweek
•
Nov 12, 2025
Sam Altman Projects OpenAI Revenue to Hit $20B—Where the Money Comes From
Observer (NY)
•
Nov 11, 2025
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about Metaculus NewsMatch
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