Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?
Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around $100 billion in mid 2007, and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).
Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion in just over 6 years. And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).
Will the first publicly traded company to have a $2 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?
This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $2 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $1 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service.
Methodology clarification (03/03/19): Current quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's GDP implicit price deflator. If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's real broad effective exchange rate of the current quarter.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.