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Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit on March 29? [updated version]
This is a duplicate question of Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit? intended to offer updated predictions on the question of a no-deal Brexit. To avoid the double-giving of points for the same question, this question will resolve ambiguous with an added 1/2 chance. Hence, in expectation, this question is worth only half the amount of points of a non-duplicated question.
Will the UK leave the EU without reaching any agreement?
This question resolves positively if a no-deal Brexit occurs on schedule (March 29 2019 at 23:00 UK time). It resolves negatively if Brexit is delayed, or if a deal between the UK and the EU is reached that prevents the UK's leaving before, or on March 29. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.
This question also resolves ambiguous if @dailyrandomnums tweets a random dice roll that ends on a 1-3 (inclusive) on March 30th.
Related question: Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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