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Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?

The UK’s exit from the EU is a fluid and uncertain process, and has been the subject of many questions here at Metaculus.

A quick recap:

The UK referendum’d to leave the EU. On 29 March 2017 the UK invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, which governs withdrawal from the EU. A withdrawal agreement was negotiated by November last year. It was endorsed by leaders of the remaining 27 EU countries. However, it has not been ratified by UK's parliament, as May's deal was defeated twice. The speaker of the House of Commons ruled out third meaningful vote on same deal, making it necessary to postpone leaving to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Currently, the UK's withdrawal has been postponed to April 12 if the UK doesn’t ratify the agreement by that date, and May 22 if they do.

Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?

This question resolves positively if a no-deal Brexit occurs on or before April 12 2019 23:00 UK time. It resolves negatively if Brexit is delayed, or if a deal between the UK and the EU is reached that prevents the UK's leaving before, or on April 12. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.

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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.