predicting accurate wisdom forecasting intelligent futures crowdsourcing intelligent estimations mapping quantitative estimations forecasting precise estimations mapping the future calculating critical forecasts calculating accurate contingencies calculating precise contingencies crowdsourcing predictive predictions calculating quantitative forecasts formulating quantitative understanding predicting calibrated contingencies formulating quantitative forecasts
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?

The 2008 financial crisis was "considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s".

According to the World Bank (series ID: NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).

Question: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?

Estimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.

This question was inspired by this related question and that also-related one.

Categories: Economy, Finance

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.