Question
When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?
Total Forecasters23
Community Prediction
10 Jan 2026
(20 Jul 2025 - 06 Oct 2026)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 20 Jul 2025 | — |
| median | 10 Jan 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 06 Oct 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >01 Jan 2030 | 6.7% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Aug 2, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 8, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Aug 2, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 8, 2024