Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary?
After the wildly successful and inaugural question for Metaculus opening the floodgates to the vast Patreon pledges two months ago, the resulting distribution in predicted pledges was rather split between a lower and a higher amount: around $16 was a small peak, and a bigger, but also broader peak around $250. Perhaps the Metaculus community will predict more accurately over a 6-month period.
What will Metaculus’ total pledged monthly support be on Patreon on its halfaversary?
For the purpose of this question, we will count the amount pledged on the 15 July 2019 (6 months after the Metaculus Patreon was opened). To verify we ask the Metaculus staff or volunteers to release that information not earlier than 15 July. This question resolves ambiguous if Metaculus or their patreon account doesn’t exist on that date.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.