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Authors:
Opened:Aug 11, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jul 1, 2100
Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?
79%
Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?
43%
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
30%
Authors:
Opened:Aug 11, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jul 1, 2100
Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?
79%
Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?
43%
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
30%