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A posteriori statistics and five for seven or better on stock dips?

One hope of Metaculus is not just to allow users to accrue a track record, but to assess, given the large set of statistics assembled, which predictors are doing much better than chance, i.e. are far enough out into the possible probability distribution that their predictions could not have been just luck.

Otherwise, it is difficult to sort out who has simply been lucky in the past.

As a case in point, consider this article about Sandy Jadeja, a technical analyst who has purportedly predicted four previous market turndowns, to the day.

How many people have been making such predictions? How many (if any) did he predict that did not come to pass? We don't know. What we do know is what he has predicted. From the article:

He now warns that the following dates spell trouble for the Dow Jones in the US that could spread to other markets.

  1. Between August 26 and August 30, 2016.

  2. September 26, 2016.

  3. October 20, 2016.

Will he get any of these right?

Question resolves as positive if the DJIA has a one-day drop (market opening to close) of more than 5% on any of the 5 days mentioned above (the 27th and 28th are a weekend.)

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Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.