generating contingent estimations calculating contingent understanding generating probable contingencies generating calibrated futures composing accurate understanding mapping the future aggregating precise estimations exploring probable estimations computing probable futures forecasting contingent understanding mapping precise understanding delivering quantitative insights generating accurate wisdom modeling calibrated wisdom

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What percentage of the Mueller report will be unredacted in its initial release by Barr's Department of Justice?

News reports indicate that a version of Robert Mueller's report is expected to be made public by the DOJ on Thursday April 18. It is expected to come with significant redactions.

What percentage of the report will be unredacted?

This is difficult to make precise, as there would have to be an agreed-upon measure of redaction (letters? words? fractions of pages?), some of which would require observation of the redacted text to be completely accurate.

So we will operationalize this by relying on the first stories in major newspapers after the release that cite an approximate percentage of redaction.

If any of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the Washington Post publish a post-release article that includes a percentage estimate of redaction (or non-redaction), the estimate from the first qualifying article will be used as the answer. If more than one of those publications publishes such an article on the same day, the number will be chosen with precedence as follows: NYT > WSJ > WP. If no such article appears within a week of the report's release, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.