Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?
At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- a "deliverable" in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. Recent statistics show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels.
The Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, current electricity generation capacity for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support.
Admittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached.
By 2025, will more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.