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What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans?
Amazon uses a bestseller rank to give at least some public information about how products are selling. The details are a bit sketchy, but roughly speaking it corresponds, in books for example, to where a given book ranks in terms of total sales among all books (or among all books in a particular category).
Cosmological Koans is a new book released on May 21, 2019 in which the author of this question has a deep vested interest. It's a book of physics and cosmology, told in the form of Zen koans that take place in a cross-world journey in the early 17th century. Along with lots of perplexing physics, it's got Galileo, life-and-death conflict, Tibetan monks, a caged superintelligence, and more.
How will it sell? The book's bestseller rank can be found on its Amazon page.
What will be the highest rank (lowest number) point it reaches in 2019?
Resolution can be supplied by the author, who can obtain a full plot of the rank even if it is not available elsewhere.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.