delivering intelligent contingencies delivering accurate estimations modeling accurate understanding calculating probable insights modeling critical estimations mapping the future generating accurate contingencies predicting critical forecasts forecasting critical estimations mapping contingent understanding crowdsourcing probable predictions delivering accurate understanding crowdsourcing probable insights modeling quantitative predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans?

Amazon uses a bestseller rank to give at least some public information about how products are selling. The details are a bit sketchy, but roughly speaking it corresponds, in books for example, to where a given book ranks in terms of total sales among all books (or among all books in a particular category).

Cosmological Koans is a new book released on May 21, 2019 in which the author of this question has a deep vested interest. It's a book of physics and cosmology, told in the form of Zen koans that take place in a cross-world journey in the early 17th century. Along with lots of perplexing physics, it's got Galileo, life-and-death conflict, Tibetan monks, a caged superintelligence, and more.

How will it sell? The book's bestseller rank can be found on its Amazon page.

What will be the highest rank (lowest number) point it reaches in 2019?

Resolution can be supplied by the author, who can obtain a full plot of the rank even if it is not available elsewhere.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.