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Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?
Among the various issues that have beset the once-booming cryptocurrency markets is a high degree of regulatory uncertainty, especially in the US where the SEC has taken a rather firm stance that cryptocurrencies constituted securities and fall under the purview of securities laws of various types.
That might change with the introduction of the Token Taxonomy Act introduced in April 2019. The act would allow the explicit classification of some coins as tokens and not securities, and carries a number of other provisions as discussed e.g. here.
Will something like this become law?
Question resolves positive if by the end of 2020, a law with substantially the same content as the above act is passed by congress and signed. Allowable versions would be:
Any law with the given title, or with a very similar title re-introduced in 2020 with Rep. Warren Davidson as a sponsor or co-sponsor.
Any law concerning cryptocurrencies, with an overlap of at least 75% of its text with the above act, and with Rep. Warren Davidson as a sponsor or co-sponsor.
If a law is passed in 2019 or 2020 that arguably includes many of the provisions of this act, but does not satisfy the above criteria, question shall resolve as ambiguous.
If no law is passed by 2020 directly addressing cryptocurrencies, or if the only law(s) passed are quite different or contrary to the above law's intent, question resolves negatively.
In the event of a positive resolution, closing time shall be retroactively set to 1 hour before the start of voting by the second body of Congress to vote on the relevant bill.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.