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Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?

Question

This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.

A "national military attack" includes the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces (to include special forces) on another country's military, military assets, or territory, including citizens located within that territory.

Attacks that occur within territorial waters, foreign missions, and/or exclusive economic zones will not qualify as a "national military attack." Foreign mission here mean diplomatic mission such as embassy or consulates located abroad.

A "cyber" attack will not qualify as a "national military attack."

  • Resolves positive if a country's government claims that such a national military attack occurred and that their own national military forces were responsible for the attack, or

  • if the governments of at least three permanent members of the UN Security Council members (i.e three of: China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, the United States) make a statement claiming that a national military attack of the sort described above has occurred,

  • Resolution shall be ambiguous if no government claims their military was responsible for a national military attack but one or two governments of permanent members of the UN Security Council do claim that such a national military attack occurred.

  • Resolution shall be negative if no country's government claims that a national military attack was perpetrated by their own national military, and no permanent members of the UN Security Council make a claim that a national military attack occurred.

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