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Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?

This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.

The International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin, Crisis Watch, provides short, country-specific updates on political and security developments worldwide, assessing in each case whether the overall situation has deteriorated, improved, or remained unchanged. The question will be resolved according to conflict status for the country of interest for the period of interest as reported within the International Crisis Groups Crisis Watch Map. To access the relevant information:

  • Go to;
  • Click on 'BROWSE MAP';
  • Click on the country of interest;
  • Hover over the lines at the top of the pop-up window for the status of the period of interest.

This question will be resolved by consulting the data source once each week sometime between 10:00 AM ET Wednesday and 4:00 PM ET Thursday, starting the Wednesday after the question close date and continuing once each week until the data are successfully retrieved.


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