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Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?
Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana declared his Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019 and enjoyed an impressive rise in name recognition and campaign contributions. As of mid-July 2019 he stands at around 5% in the polling averages. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other strong candidates have a path to the nomination.
By May 5, 2020, when Indiana's primary is scheduled to take place, most of the Democratic primary electorate will have already voted and the party convention will be little more than two months away.
Will Pete Buttigieg have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in Indiana's primary election?
This resolves positive if before the 2020 Indiana Democratic primary, Pete Buttigieg has claimed to no longer intend to participate in as a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 Indiana Democratic primary is currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2020, but this could change. Resolution should be supported by credible news reports.
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.