exploring probable futures predicting accurate understanding assembling definitive understanding assembling accurate contingencies computing contingent insights mapping the future computing probable understanding generating probable insights computing calibrated insights exploring probable understanding crowdsourcing predictive understanding exploring quantitative understanding forecasting precise predictions composing quantitative insights

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What percent of undergrads at select US universities will be enrolled in introductory ML classes?

Cross-posted on Metaculus AI Forecasting.

More undergraduate students at top US universities seem to be taking machine learning classes. The 2018 AI Index report (pg. 22) has analysed enrolment data for introductory AI and introductory ML courses over time at many leading universities in the US. These universities were: University of California Berkeley, Stanford University, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, University of Washington-Seattle, Carnegie Mellon University. The percentage of undergraduates taking introductory ML courses averaged over the universities has been mostly increasing over the 2010-2017 period, and peaked in 2017:

  • 2010: 1.24%
  • 2011: 1.45%
  • 2012: 2.27%
  • 2013: 2.94%
  • 2014: 3.41%
  • 2015: 4.18%
  • 2016: 3.54%
  • 2017: 4.35%

From AI Index’s 2018 annual report (p. 75):

Methodology

We requested enrolment in introductory AI and introductory ML courses over time at many leading computer science universities in the U.S. Several schools participated. Enrolment counts were not included in our analysis if the school did not include sufficient historical data, or if the data was overly nuanced. Some schools provided enrolment by semester, and some provided it by year. In order to compare schools to each other, we collapsed semester enrolment data to show full academic years. Additionally, some schools had multiple courses that were considered “introductory” while others just had one. When appropriate and relevant, multiple courses were combined to show one “introductory AI” trend line. For enrolment as a percent of the undergraduate population, each year’s AI / ML enrolment was divided by the undergraduate population for that same year. This is a calculated field intended to show trends in enrolment on an even playing field across schools.

Nuance

  • Nearly every school noted that enrolment, particularly in recent years, is a function of supply, rather than student demand. Our data shows the number of students that were successfully enrolled in a course, and does not account for waitlists or other demand metrics.
  • Courses are generally open to undergraduates only, and can typically be taken by majors and non-majors. Some courses have changed their names over time, we show course names as of 2017 below. We also list any additional details / nuances that school administrators were able to provide on the enrolment data.

What percent of undergrads at select US universities will be enrolled in introductory ML classes in 2019?


Resolution

This resolves as the percent of undergraduates enrolled in introductory ML courses in the year 2019, averaged over the following universities: University of California Berkeley, Stanford University, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, University of Washington-Seattle, Carnegie Mellon University. The question resolves ambiguous if the data for any of these universities is not reported in the 2020 AI Index.

Data

Historical data can be found here. Please make a copy by clicking "file" and then "make a copy" if you wish to edit it.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.