forecasting calibrated predictions formulating critical wisdom calculating probable wisdom forecasting quantitative understanding assembling contingent forecasts mapping the future assembling calibrated predictions aggregating definitive contingencies modeling accurate insights assembling quantitative understanding forecasting calibrated futures predicting critical futures calculating contingent contingencies assembling precise futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

How much will international AI and ML course enrollment grow over the 2019-2020 period?

Cross-posted on Metaculus AI Forecasting.

More undergraduate students at top universities seem to be taking machine learning classes. AI Index (pg. 23) has analysed enrolment data for introductory AI and introductory ML courses over time at many leading universities. These universities were: Tsinghua (China) INAOE (Mexico) UBC (Canada) Toronto (Canada) TU Wien (Austria) Hebrew University (Israel) EPFL (Switzerland) MILA (Quebec, Canada). The growth rates of total enrolment at these universities has been in double digits from the 2010-2011 period onward. Here are the past year-on-year rate of enrolment growth over the past seven years:

  • 2010-2011: 22.43%
  • 2011-2012: 63.51%
  • 2012-2013: 16.99%
  • 2013- 2014: 16.84%
  • 2014-2015: 40.64%
  • 2015-2016: 22.73%
  • 2016-2017: 35.62%

From AI Index’s 2018 annual report (p. 76):

Methodology We requested enrolment in introductory AI and introductory ML courses over time at many leading international computer science universities. Several schools participated. Enrolment counts were not included in our analysis if the school did not include sufficient historical data, or if the data was overly nuanced. Some schools provided enrolment by semester, and some provided it by year. In order to compare schools to each other, we collapsed semester enrolment data to show full academic years. Additionally, some schools had multiple courses that were considered “introductory” while others just had one. When appropriate and relevant, multiple courses were combined to show one “introductory AI” trend line. For enrolment as a percent of the undergraduate population, each year’s AI / ML enrolment was divided by the undergraduate population for that same year. This is a calculated field intended to show trends in enrolment on an even playing field across schools.


  • Nearly every school noted that enrollment, particularly in recent years, is a function of supply, rather than student demand. Our data shows the number of students that were successfully enrolled in a course, and does not account for waitlists or other demand metrics.

  • Unlike the U.S. schools studied, international schools significantly varied on whether courses were only open to undergraduates or not.

By how much percent will total international AI and ML course enrolment grow over the 2019-2020 period?


This resolves as the percentage change from 2019 to 2020 in the total number of undergraduates enrolled in introductory ML or AI courses in the listed universities: Tsinghua (China) INAOE (Mexico) UBC (Canada) Toronto (Canada) TU Wien (Austria) Hebrew University (Israel) EPFL (Switzerland) MILA (Quebec, Canada). The question resolves ambiguous if the data for any of these universities is not reported in the 2020 AI Index.


Historical data can be found here. Please make a copy by clicking "file" and then "make a copy" if you wish to edit it.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.