10 comments
96 forecasters
When will an AI pass the laugh test?
Current estimate
22 Jan 2026
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 15, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 17, 2019
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
10 May 2029
(09 Nov 2026 - Oct 2033)
10 May 2029
(09 Nov 2026 - Oct 2033)
175 forecasters
Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?
99% chance
281
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Jan 2031
(10 Sep 2026 - Mar 2040)
Jan 2031
(10 Sep 2026 - Mar 2040)
182 forecasters