Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
10
comments
97
forecasters
When will an AI pass the laugh test?
Current estimate
30 Mar 2026
Share
Predict
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Background Info
Follow
embed
Authors:
Anthony
Opened:
Aug 15, 2019
Closes:
Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:
Aug 17, 2019
AI Demonstrations
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
News Match
The Turing Trap
Psychology Today
•
Oct 26, 2025
What Hollywood Is Missing About A.I.
New Yorker
•
Oct 25, 2025
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
10 May 2029
(09 Nov 2026 - Oct 2033)
10 May 2029
(09 Nov 2026 - Oct 2033)
175
forecasters
Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?
99%
chance
279
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
May 2031
(28 Oct 2026 - Jun 2041)
May 2031
(28 Oct 2026 - Jun 2041)
182
forecasters
Show More Questions