Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
[Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?
The Hong Kong protesters have recently started occupying Hong Kong Intl. Airport, disrupting many flights.
According to the Hong Kong Intl. Airport's website, on the 12th of August 2019, 118 of 522 departing flights (23%) had been cancelled. As of writing, for the 13th of August, 218 of 511 departing flights were cancelled (43%). For the 14th of August, 56 of 510 departing flights were already cancelled (11%).
Question: On the 16th of August, will the Hong Kong Intl. Airport's website list >= 10% of departing flights as "Cancelled"?
- The percentages are to be computed from the "Status" column of the linked page for the relevant day (the website is on HK time), counting number of lines with "Cancelled", and the total number of lines.
- Sadly the website only lists flights from the previous day onward, so the numbers will have to be checked on the 17th at the latest.
- Failure to retrieve the numbers for any reason resolves ambiguous.
- Less than 250 departing flights being scheduled for the 16th resolves ambiguous.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.