formulating contingent insights generating predictive understanding exploring contingent contingencies generating probable insights assembling quantitative estimations mapping the future mapping probable contingencies modeling intelligent understanding forecasting accurate understanding delivering calibrated wisdom exploring intelligent insights forecasting contingent estimations assembling precise estimations mapping definitive insights

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?

Kirsten Gillibrand, junior United States Senator for New York and former New York congresswoman, launched her Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019. She has a "soaring national profile in the U.S. Senate" (Politico) and a particular appeal to college-educated women, but has struggled to break 1% in polling. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other strong candidates have a path to the nomination.

By 28 April 2020, when New York's primary is expected to take place, most of the Democratic primary electorate will have already voted and the party convention will be just two-and-a-half months away.

Will Kirsten Gillibrand have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in New York's primary election?

This resolves positive if before the 2020 New York Democratic primary, Kirsten Gillibrand has claimed to no longer intend to participate in as a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 New York Democratic primary is currently expected for Tuesday, April 28, 2020, but this could change. Resolution should be supported by credible news reports.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.