Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?


The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is an bus-sized telescope designed to replace the ageing Hubble Space Telescope. It is very cool.

In 1997, it was expected to be launched in 2007 for a budget of 0.5 billion $. It has since been rescheduled many times. As of the first of March 2019, NASA expects to launch it on the 30th of March 2021, for a budget of 9.66 billion $.

Question: When will the JWST be launched?

This resolves when the JWST is mounted on a rocket and the rocket engines are ignited with the intent of taking off. It also resolves if the JWST reaches space (defined as an altitude of 100 km, aka the Kármán line) through any other mean. The question resolves ambiguous if there are definitive reports that JWST is cancelled.

For the purposes of this question, any telescope that has ever officially been called "JWST", has a 6.5 meters honeycomb mirror, and is put either to L2 or L3, counts as the JWST. However the final telescope needs to be sent in a single piece accounting for >90% of its mass, otherwise this resolves ambiguous.

This closed binary question asked if the JWST would be launched before 2020. It closed in July 2018 at 1%.

This still open question asks if the JWST will be a success, conditional on launching.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.