predicting definitive understanding aggregating calibrated understanding calculating accurate futures delivering calibrated insights exploring definitive wisdom mapping the future calculating contingent futures modeling quantitative predictions calculating precise forecasts aggregating calibrated contingencies forecasting contingent understanding modeling definitive wisdom calculating quantitative understanding forecasting definitive insights


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?

Hawaii Congresswoman Tusli Gabbard, a former Honolulu city councilor and Hawaii state representative, declared her Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019. Though once considered a rising star by the party establishment, she has since become a pariah for what she sees as "stand[ing] strong against [...] neolibs and neocons dragging us from one regime change war to the next"; others in the party have seen her as a supporters of authoritarians abroad.

As of mid-August 2019, Gabbard stands at about 1% in the polling averages. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other strong candidates have a path to the nomination.

Hawaii's primary will be well along in the voting, on April 4, 2020, about three months before the party convention.

Will Tulsi Gabbard have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in Hawaii's primary election?

This resolves positive if before the 2020 Hawaii Democratic primary, Tulsi Gabbard has claimed to no longer intend to participate in as a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 Hawaii primary is currently scheduled for April 4, 2020, but this could change. Resolution should be supported by credible news reports.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.