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When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?

As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat, mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are Just and Memphis Meats). Estimates reveal that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years.

Alternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation beyond $10bn.

When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices?


Resolution

Positive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words "clean meat", "cultivated meat", "cultured meat" or "in-vitro meat", "cell-based meat", or any variations where "meat" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. "clean beef"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline "clean meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation".

The article should demonstrate that the term "clean meat" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term "clean meat" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.

Additionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.

Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.

This question is part of the clean meat series of our Animal Welfare forecasting project.

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