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How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?
Cross-posted on Metaculus.
As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat, mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are Just and Memphis Meats). Estimates reveal that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.
How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of 2019 USD?
This question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the U.S. fiscal year 2030. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.
Estimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.
The question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2033, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2030 can be found.
The question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI.
This question is part of the clean meat series of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:
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