composing critical contingencies composing accurate predictions crowdsourcing probable insights computing quantitative understanding crowdsourcing calibrated estimations mapping the future formulating precise estimations exploring intelligent forecasts calculating precise insights forecasting calibrated insights crowdsourcing quantitative wisdom mapping contingent wisdom crowdsourcing calibrated forecasts calculating quantitative insights

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?

As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat, mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are Just and Memphis Meats).

If success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change.

Moreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly.

How many months after the first clean meat company is first valued at ≥ $1bn will there be at least three companies valued at a billion dollars or more?


Resolution

This question resolves as the number of months between when credible reporting indicates that a clean meat company is first valued at $1bn or more, and when credible reporting indicates that at least three clean meat companies that exist simultaneously, are valued at $1bn or more.

For a company to qualify as a "clean meat company" at least three articles must be published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words "clean meat", "cultured meat" or "in-vitro meat" or "cultivated meat", "cell-based meat", or any variations where "meat" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. "clean beef"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline "clean-meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation". These articles must be published within six months after the company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation.

The article should demonstrate that the term "clean meat" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term "clean meat" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.

Additionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.

The resolution of our question [When will the first clean meat company be valued at $1bn or more?] should start the clock for this question.

Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.

This question is part of the clean meat series of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:

When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?

When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?

When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.