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Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election?


Presidential elections are scheduled to take place in Tunisia on 15 September 2019. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be no later than 3 November.

Businessman and Politician Nabil Karoui led the last legal poll in July 2019 (Wikipedia list of polls), but:

On July 8, 2019, Karoui and his brother Ghazi were charged with money laundering around the 2016 allegations. Their assets were frozen and both were forbidden from leaving the country. He was arrested on August 23 following a warrant by the Tunis Court of Appeal.


Despite Karoui's previous arrest, his candidacy was allowed to remain in place, as he has not yet been sentenced by the courts.

Final results are usually published by the Instance supérieure indépendante pour les élections (ISIE, Independent High Authority for Elections) within a month (example for 2014) of the first round, and they by definition have to be published before the second round.

Question: Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election, according to Tunisia's ISIE.

Resolution details:

  • "Win the popular vote" here means getting strictly more ballots than any other running candidate.
  • If Karoui is prevented from participating in the first round of the election, this resolves negative.
  • If the first round does not occur or is postponed beyond September, this resolves ambiguous.
  • If the final results are not published by the ISIE before the end of October 2019, this resolves ambiguous.


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