Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
If the Chinese police or military intervenes in Hong Kong in September 2019, how many G20 countries will impose economic sanctions on China within a month?
Another metaculus question asks whether the Chinese police or military will intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019. This raises the question of what will happen if China does intervene in Hong Kong.
One possible consequence is economic sanctions imposed on China by other countries.
Question: How many G20 countries will say they impose economic sanctions on China because of its intervention in Hong Kong in September 2019, within a month of said intervention?
- This question resolves ambiguous if the sister question resolves negative or ambiguous.
- This question closes when the sister question resolves.
- To count, a government, member of a government or head of state of a G20 country has to publicly declare that their country is "imposing economic sanctions on China as a result of their intervention in Hong Kong" or some equivalent paraphrase, within a month of the event triggering the sister question's positive resolution.
- If no such declaration has been found wihtin 45 days of the event, this question resolves at value zero.
- As of writing, wikipedia says G20 countries are: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.