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When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?


The price of clean meat has fallen from $330,000/pound in 2013 to around $800 in 2018, and is expected to fall even further. In 2017, Mark Post, chief science officer at Mosa Meat, predicted the following in 2017:

For small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.

In 2015, "restaurant" Bistro in Vitro offers virtual diners "food for thought" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using "in vitro" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?

When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?


This question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 20% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight, so that it contains at least 8 grams of clean meat. The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence "pop-up" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like CES) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count.

If the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 50% clean meat and 50% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).

Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.

Prices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.

Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.

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