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What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?
Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.
Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.
What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?
The "magic" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.
Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:
A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic
B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.
C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.
I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.
I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.
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