123 forecasters

Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza?

95%chance

95%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 95% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolved:

Jan 27, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 25, 2024

🏆 2024-2025 Leaderboard

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NPR Online News•Oct 16, 2025

Palestinians return to ruins where homes once stood as Israel awaits remains of hostages

PBS NewsHour•Oct 16, 2025

Israel-Hamas peace deal may hinge on return of all Israeli hostage remains, but is that possible?

CBS•Oct 15, 2025

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