30 comments
413 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1%chance
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Opened:Dec 20, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 25, 2024
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?
20% chance
49
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
44 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?
6% chance
70