396 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

1%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 25, 2024

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

OpenAI Ramps Up Robotics Work in Race Toward AGI

Wired•Sep 15, 2025

‘Selling coffee beans to Starbucks’ – how the AI boom could leave AI’s biggest companies behind

TechCrunch•Sep 14, 2025

Karen Hao on the Empire of AI, AGI evangelists, and the cost of belief

TechCrunch•Sep 14, 2025

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