Question

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters345

Community Prediction

(5% - 15%)

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50%

community: 7%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 25, 2024

Future Perfect

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Microsoft and OpenAI dueling over artificial general intelligence, The Information reports

•Jun 27, 2025

Google CEO claims the probability of AI causing existential doom is “pretty high” — but he’s banking on humanity to rally against the imminent catastrophe

•Jun 27, 2025

Meta says it’s winning the talent war with OpenAI

Verge•Jun 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

36%

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

37%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 25, 2024

Future Perfect

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Microsoft and OpenAI dueling over artificial general intelligence, The Information reports

•Jun 27, 2025

Google CEO claims the probability of AI causing existential doom is “pretty high” — but he’s banking on humanity to rally against the imminent catastrophe

•Jun 27, 2025

Meta says it’s winning the talent war with OpenAI

Verge•Jun 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

36%

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

37%