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30 comments
405 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

1%chance
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:Dec 20, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 25, 2024
Future Perfect
Artificial Intelligence
🏆 2024-2025 Leaderboard
Business Insider logo
Sam Altman predicts AI will surpass human intelligence by 2030
Business Insider•Sep 26, 2025
TechCrunch logo
OpenAI says GPT-5 stacks up to humans in a wide range of jobs
TechCrunch•Sep 25, 2025
Business Insider logo
OpenAI's Sam Altman and the father of quantum computing just agreed on a Turing Test 2.0
Business Insider•Sep 25, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

20% chance
42

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet
34.6%
OpenAI
21.6%
Anthropic
15.3%
3 others
34 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?

6% chance
68
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