19 comments
97 forecasters
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 13, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 15, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
84 cases
(70.8 - 120)
84 cases
(70.8 - 120)
52 forecasters
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
2% chance
81
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
2% chance
253