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28 comments
1.2k forecasters

Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026?

1.5%chance
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Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:Dec 20, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2025
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The Conversation logo
Trump administration’s layoffs would gut department overseeing special education, eliminating parents’ last resort
The Conversation•Oct 17, 2025
Townhall logo
Secretary McMahon Says Schumer Shutdown Proves U.S. Can Do Without the Department of Education
Townhall•Oct 17, 2025
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Foreign Bots, Fake Students, and Wasted Billions — The Education Scandals Nobody's Talking About
Townhall•Oct 17, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US Department of Education be dissolved before Jan. 20, 2029?

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Will the United States disband the Department of Education through an act of Congress before 2027?

5% chance
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Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?

35% chance
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